Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

France vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 43¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$363.06

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 42.5¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares8,321

Combined PnL+$368.05

Over2 traders

Total Value$47.33

Total Shares97

Combined PnL-$4.99

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 43.8¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$189.99	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
RN1CTR	Underavg 42.1¢	$958.28	$1.2K	+$201.56	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$16.28	43% 567-758 (1325)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$550.79	$560.62	+$9.84
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.5¢	$547.61	$554.05	+$6.44
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 43.7¢	$498.99	$491.4	-$7.59	46% 1216-1411 (2627)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 42.4¢	$455.27	$461.71	+$6.44	59% 3966-2735 (6701)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 46.6¢	$158.48	$144.63	-$13.85	38% 1406-2304 (3710)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 47.6¢	$480.2	$139.64	-$7.75	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.6¢	$94.23	$84.14	-$1.18
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.3¢	$48.56	$55.49	-$6.58
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 45.2¢	$140	$133.14	-$6.85	57% 691-531 (1222)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 54¢	$49.52	$44.48	-$5.04	46% 3371-3906 (7277)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$12.84	$12	-$0.84	41% 1200-1727 (2927)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$12.24	$11.7	-$0.54	38% 1404-2275 (3679)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.85	+$0.05	48% 2617-2816 (5433)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.61	$2.34	-$0.27	53% 2377-2113 (4490)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,395.79

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$189.99

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$958.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$201.56

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,098.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$16.28

Record

43%

567-758 (1325)

Both legs:

Over$550.7956¢+$9.84

Under$547.6142.5¢+$6.44

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$498.99

Value

$491.4

PnL

-$7.59

Record

46%

1216-1411 (2627)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$455.27

Value

$461.71

PnL

+$6.44

Record

59%

3966-2735 (6701)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$158.48

Value

$144.63

PnL

-$13.85

Record

38%

1406-2304 (3710)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$480.2

Value

$139.64

PnL

-$7.75

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

Both legs:

Under$94.2347.6¢-$1.18

Over$48.5650.3¢-$6.58

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$140

Value

$133.14

PnL

-$6.85

Record

57%

691-531 (1222)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$49.52

Value

$44.48

PnL

-$5.04

Record

46%

3371-3906 (7277)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.84

Value

$12

PnL

-$0.84

Record

41%

1200-1727 (2927)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.24

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$0.54

Record

38%

1404-2275 (3679)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2617-2816 (5433)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.34

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.