Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Türkiye?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$104.71
90.8¢ → 87¢
-4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+14 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $294.89 | $344.11 | +$49.22 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 92.8¢ | $242.72 | $239.2 | -$3.52 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $52.17 | $104.91 | +$52.74 | |
GC GC-P | Noavg 91¢ | $318.49 | $325.49 | +$7 | 43% 577-770 (1347) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 91¢ | $318.47 | $325.47 | +$7 | 59% 3971-2747 (6718) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90¢ | $145 | $139.5 | +$4.61 | 53% 1989-1729 (3718) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $80 | +$52.97 | 20% 30-119 (149) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $61.07 | $62.41 | +$1.34 | 54% 6095-5185 (11280) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $212.93 | $43.99 | +$37.68 | 48% 4056-4455 (8511) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $41.5 | $32.75 | -$7.05 | 46% 3397-3944 (7341) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $25.65 | $26.51 | +$0.86 | 46% 1234-1428 (2662) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.2 | $18.6 | +$0.4 | 38% 1425-2328 (3753) |
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $0.81 | $0.71 | -$0.1 | 41% 173-249 (422) |
Invested
$294.89
Value
$344.11
PnL
+$49.22
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
Both legs:
Invested
$318.49
Value
$325.49
PnL
+$7
Record
43%
577-770 (1347)
Invested
$318.47
Value
$325.47
PnL
+$7
Record
59%
3971-2747 (6718)
VeryLucky888Invested
$145
Value
$139.5
PnL
+$4.61
Record
53%
1989-1729 (3718)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$80
PnL
+$52.97
Record
20%
30-119 (149)
RN1<$100Invested
$61.07
Value
$62.41
PnL
+$1.34
Record
54%
6095-5185 (11280)
Invested
$212.93
Value
$43.99
PnL
+$37.68
Record
48%
4056-4455 (8511)
Invested
$41.5
Value
$32.75
PnL
-$7.05
Record
46%
3397-3944 (7341)
Invested
$25.65
Value
$26.51
PnL
+$0.86
Record
46%
1234-1428 (2662)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$18.6
PnL
+$0.4
Record
38%
1425-2328 (3753)
Invested
$0.81
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$0.1
Record
41%
173-249 (422)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.