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4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 53¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Yes16¢No53¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$157.77

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 52.5¢

-41% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,305

Combined PnL-$69.96

Yes6 traders

Total Value$436.54

Total Shares3,845

Combined PnL+$227.73

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 90¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$56.48	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 88.9¢	$663.37	$656.47	-$6.9	35% 669-1223 (1892)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$328.55	$373.41	+$44.86	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10¢	$229.64	$275.81	+$46.17
└ No leg	Noavg 89.2¢	$98.91	$97.6	-$1.31
GC GC-P	Noavg 89¢	$315.62	$312.53	-$3.09	43% 577-770 (1347)
NM NM-P	Noavg 89¢	$311.47	$307.97	-$3.5	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 3.7¢	$323.37	$166.23	+$132.83	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 10.9¢	$105.65	$116.79	+$11.13	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$110	+$82.97	20% 30-119 (149)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$24.52	$24.31	-$0.21	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$10.43	$11.43	+$1	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$7.79	$7.79	+$0	46% 3397-3944 (7341)

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,572.08

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$56.48

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$663.37

Value

$656.47

PnL

-$6.9

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$328.55

Value

$373.41

PnL

+$44.86

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Both legs:

Yes$229.6410¢+$46.17

No$98.9189.2¢-$1.31

GC-P

Invested

$315.62

Value

$312.53

PnL

-$3.09

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

NM-P

Invested

$311.47

Value

$307.97

PnL

-$3.5

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$323.37

Value

$166.23

PnL

+$132.83

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$105.65

Value

$116.79

PnL

+$11.13

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$110

PnL

+$82.97

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.52

Value

$24.31

PnL

-$0.21

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.43

Value

$11.43

PnL

+$1

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.79

Value

$7.79

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.