Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Türkiye?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 50%
$5.1K
-$20.64
98.5¢ → 99.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | +$44.98 | 54% 6095-5185 (11280) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.6¢ | $142.06 | $144.85 | +$2.79 | 46% 1234-1428 (2662) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $235.95 | $129.06 | -$6.91 | 48% 4056-4455 (8511) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $29.3 | $29.85 | +$0.55 | 38% 1401-2279 (3680) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $78.55 | $25.88 | -$52.66 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $13.02 | -$9.39 | 20% 30-119 (149) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $4.84 | $4.93 | +$0.08 | 38% 1416-2272 (3688) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.49 | $0.49 | -$0.01 | 48% 2643-2871 (5514) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.26 | $0.26 | -$0 | 41% 1218-1750 (2968) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.15 | $0.08 | -$0.08 | 59% 3971-2747 (6718) |
RN1Invested
$4,682.94
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$44.98
Record
54%
6095-5185 (11280)
Invested
$142.06
Value
$144.85
PnL
+$2.79
Record
46%
1234-1428 (2662)
Invested
$235.95
Value
$129.06
PnL
-$6.91
Record
48%
4056-4455 (8511)
Invested
$29.3
Value
$29.85
PnL
+$0.55
Record
38%
1401-2279 (3680)
Invested
$78.55
Value
$25.88
PnL
-$52.66
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$13.02
PnL
-$9.39
Record
20%
30-119 (149)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$4.93
PnL
+$0.08
Record
38%
1416-2272 (3688)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$0.49
PnL
-$0.01
Record
48%
2643-2871 (5514)
Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
1218-1750 (2968)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$0.08
Record
59%
3971-2747 (6718)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.