Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Türkiye?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 54¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$1.8K
-$0.89
91.6¢ → 54¢
-41% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 92¢ | $868.94 | $769.77 | -$99.17 | 38% 1401-2279 (3680) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 91¢ | $259.95 | $261.62 | +$1.67 | 43% 577-770 (1347) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 91¢ | $189.14 | $193.98 | +$4.84 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 91¢ | $179.47 | $180.46 | +$0.99 | 59% 3971-2747 (6718) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $84.58 | $82.1 | +$43.14 | 48% 4056-4455 (8511) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $80 | +$52.97 | 20% 30-119 (149) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $68.45 | $72.73 | +$4.28 | 54% 6095-5185 (11280) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $75.61 | $66.98 | -$8.63 | 38% 1425-2328 (3753) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $28.47 | $28.99 | +$0.52 | 46% 1234-1428 (2662) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $15.22 | $13.53 | -$1.69 | 46% 3397-3944 (7341) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $9.1 | $9.3 | +$0.2 | 48% 2643-2871 (5514) |
Invested
$868.94
Value
$769.77
PnL
-$99.17
Record
38%
1401-2279 (3680)
Invested
$259.95
Value
$261.62
PnL
+$1.67
Record
43%
577-770 (1347)
Invested
$189.14
Value
$193.98
PnL
+$4.84
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
Invested
$179.47
Value
$180.46
PnL
+$0.99
Record
59%
3971-2747 (6718)
Invested
$84.58
Value
$82.1
PnL
+$43.14
Record
48%
4056-4455 (8511)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$80
PnL
+$52.97
Record
20%
30-119 (149)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$68.45
Value
$72.73
PnL
+$4.28
Record
54%
6095-5185 (11280)
Invested
$75.61
Value
$66.98
PnL
-$8.63
Record
38%
1425-2328 (3753)
Invested
$28.47
Value
$28.99
PnL
+$0.52
Record
46%
1234-1428 (2662)
Invested
$15.22
Value
$13.53
PnL
-$1.69
Record
46%
3397-3944 (7341)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
2643-2871 (5514)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.