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4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Yes12¢No88¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$371.13

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 88.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$510.3

Total Shares523

Combined PnL+$20.33

Yes7 traders

Total Value$438.74

Total Shares2,887

Combined PnL+$350.8

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 86¢	$209.44	$231.19	+$21.75	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 93¢	$177.18	$214.27	+$37.09	43% 577-770 (1347)
└ No leg	Noavg 93¢	$155.89	$135.77	-$20.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.2¢	$21.29	$78.5	+$57.21
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 81¢	$212.13	$212.13	+$0	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$190	+$162.97	20% 30-119 (149)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$145.81	$140.52	+$115.16	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 90¢	$54	$54.3	+$0.3	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$14.18	$53.9	+$39.72	47% 507-561 (1068)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$10.68	$40.58	+$29.9	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$14.4	$12.68	-$1.72	53% 2390-2132 (4522)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.76	$5.58	+$3.82	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$6.66	$5.48	-$1.18	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$2.26	$2.67	+$0.41	45% 378-471 (849)

Flaznorp

Invested

$209.44

Value

$231.19

PnL

+$21.75

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$177.18

Value

$214.27

PnL

+$37.09

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

Both legs:

No$155.8993¢-$20.11

Yes$21.295.2¢+$57.21

SnakeBall

Invested

$212.13

Value

$212.13

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$190

PnL

+$162.97

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$145.81

Value

$140.52

PnL

+$115.16

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$54

Value

$54.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.18

Value

$53.9

PnL

+$39.72

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.68

Value

$40.58

PnL

+$29.9

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$12.68

PnL

-$1.72

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$3.82

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.66

Value

$5.48

PnL

-$1.18

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$0.41

Record

45%

378-471 (849)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.