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7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$150.04

Smart Money Entry

92.7¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares7,790

Combined PnL+$158.06

Yes7 traders

Total Value$112.63

Total Shares6,172

Combined PnL-$308.1

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (14 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 92.5¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$20.36	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 92.4¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$135.89	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
SE sentrio	Noavg 91.9¢	$639.66	$640.05	+$0.39	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
NM NM-P	Noavg 97.8¢	$222.27	$208.86	-$13.41	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 97.7¢	$127.43	$119.87	-$7.57	47% 507-561 (1068)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$1.0K	$80	+$52.97	20% 30-119 (149)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 91.8¢	$866.86	$42.34	+$65.64	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$42.48	$39.96	-$2.52	43% 577-770 (1347)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$26.87	$27.21	+$0.34	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$2.94	$3.03	+$0.09	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 7.9¢	$131.48	$0.83	-$130.65	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$97.35	$0.64	-$96.71	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$74.17	$0.49	-$73.68	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$60.9	$0.43	-$60.47	38% 1401-2279 (3680)

RN1

Invested

$3,519.29

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$20.36

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,710.68

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$135.89

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

sentrio

Invested

$639.66

Value

$640.05

PnL

+$0.39

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

NM-P

Invested

$222.27

Value

$208.86

PnL

-$13.41

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$127.43

Value

$119.87

PnL

-$7.57

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$80

PnL

+$52.97

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

38791873984189

Invested

$866.86

Value

$42.34

PnL

+$65.64

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$42.48

Value

$39.96

PnL

-$2.52

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.87

Value

$27.21

PnL

+$0.34

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.94

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.09

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$131.48

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$130.65

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.35

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$96.71

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.17

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$73.68

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.9

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$60.47

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (14 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.