France vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score
1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (11%) · Yes at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 11%
$1.6K
-$3.49
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-2 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO jole24 | Yesavg 51¢ | $978.18 | $933 | +$19.18 | 40% 26-39 (65) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Noavg 48¢ | $340.78 | $330.14 | -$10.65 | 56% 668-530 (1198) |
ZZ Zzzz87CTR | Noavg 49¢ | $156.8 | $147.2 | -$9.6 | 58% 114-81 (195) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 46.1¢ | $66.36 | $53.49 | +$1.01 | 48% 3968-4327 (8295) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $52.62 | $50.42 | -$2.19 | 49% 4676-4943 (9619) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $19.04 | $18.28 | -$0.76 | 46% 3282-3819 (7101) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $13.49 | $12.93 | -$0.56 | 41% 1189-1686 (2875) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $7.42 | $7.5 | +$0.08 | 42% 548-748 (1296) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $4.26 | $4.26 | -$0 | 53% 2316-2081 (4397) |
Invested
$978.18
Value
$933
PnL
+$19.18
Record
40%
26-39 (65)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$340.78
Value
$330.14
PnL
-$10.65
Record
56%
668-530 (1198)
Invested
$156.8
Value
$147.2
PnL
-$9.6
Record
58%
114-81 (195)
Invested
$66.36
Value
$53.49
PnL
+$1.01
Record
48%
3968-4327 (8295)
Invested
$52.62
Value
$50.42
PnL
-$2.19
Record
49%
4676-4943 (9619)
Invested
$19.04
Value
$18.28
PnL
-$0.76
Record
46%
3282-3819 (7101)
Invested
$13.49
Value
$12.93
PnL
-$0.56
Record
41%
1189-1686 (2875)
Invested
$7.42
Value
$7.5
PnL
+$0.08
Record
42%
548-748 (1296)
Invested
$4.26
Value
$4.26
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
2316-2081 (4397)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.