Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 8.5

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (91%) · Under at 40¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 15

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 91%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.2K

Combined PnL

-$50.38

Smart Money Entry

42.9¢ → 40.1¢

-6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares15,341

Combined PnL+$258.91

Over1 trader

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,561

Combined PnL-$309.29

Under — 91%Over — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 52.2¢	$8.3K	$7.6K	-$695.21	52% 2509-2300 (4809)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.2¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$272.34
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.9¢	$3.8K	$2.8K	-$967.55
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$4.4K	$4.9K	+$518.29	54% 6040-5116 (11156)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$307.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.1¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$210.59
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 40.5¢	$3.9K	$4.2K	+$366.4	49% 4708-4979 (9687)
SH shaillakhani	Overavg 61¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	-$309.29	7% 16-211 (227)
GG ggA11xcrCTR	Underavg 44.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$62.04	26% 6-17 (23)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 34.3¢	$205.84	$254.6	+$48.75	39% 1592-2508 (4100)
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.3¢	$119.64	$196.98	+$77.34
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$86.2	$57.61	-$28.59
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 43.5¢	$71.44	$66.17	+$78.71	38% 1372-2254 (3626)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 96.2¢	$104.81	$43.71	-$61.1	48% 487-523 (1010)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 95.4¢	$73.48	$30.88	-$42.6	56% 668-523 (1191)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 39.2¢	$29.35	$30.02	+$0.67	38% 1372-2226 (3598)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 56.4¢	$40.68	$28.9	-$11.78	49% 1346-1426 (2772)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 42.6¢	$24.95	$25.65	+$0.7	38% 1352-2201 (3553)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 40.6¢	$20.02	$21.55	+$1.53	38% 1374-2204 (3578)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 96.1¢	$19.87	$8.29	-$11.59	53% 2375-2109 (4484)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$8,257.79

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$695.21

Record

52%

2509-2300 (4809)

Both legs:

Over$4,464.7652.2¢+$272.34

Under$3,793.0259.9¢-$967.55

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,422.85

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$518.29

Record

54%

6040-5116 (11156)

Both legs:

Over$2,495.5149.5¢+$307.71

Under$1,927.3540.1¢+$210.59

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$3,869.41

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$366.4

Record

49%

4708-4979 (9687)

shaillakhani

Over

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$309.29

Record

16-211 (227)

ggA11xcrCTR

Under

Invested

$2,338.11

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$62.04

Record

26%

6-17 (23)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$205.84

Value

$254.6

PnL

+$48.75

Record

39%

1592-2508 (4100)

Both legs:

Over$119.6434.3¢+$77.34

Under$86.260¢-$28.59

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$71.44

Value

$66.17

PnL

+$78.71

Record

38%

1372-2254 (3626)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$104.81

Value

$43.71

PnL

-$61.1

Record

48%

487-523 (1010)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.48

Value

$30.88

PnL

-$42.6

Record

56%

668-523 (1191)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.35

Value

$30.02

PnL

+$0.67

Record

38%

1372-2226 (3598)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.68

Value

$28.9

PnL

-$11.78

Record

49%

1346-1426 (2772)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.95

Value

$25.65

PnL

+$0.7

Record

38%

1352-2201 (3553)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.02

Value

$21.55

PnL

+$1.53

Record

38%

1374-2204 (3578)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.87

Value

$8.29

PnL

-$11.59

Record

53%

2375-2109 (4484)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.3%

40.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.