Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (76%). 11 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 7.5

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 24¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$5.2K

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 24¢

-56% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,719

Combined PnL+$748.06

Over8 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares7,818

Combined PnL+$4.4K

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (19 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 67.1¢	$1.9K	$3.2K	+$1.2K	52% 2509-2300 (4809)
MO mouzsynapse	Overavg 7.2¢	$267.78	$3.0K	+$2.7K	41% 166-239 (405)
SH shaillakhani	Overavg 66.9¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$181.09	7% 16-211 (227)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Overavg 7¢	$124.87	$1.2K	+$1.1K	48% 487-523 (1010)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 50.7¢	$308.64	$411.44	+$102.81	39% 1592-2508 (4100)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 7¢	$26.2	$295.63	+$269.44	47% 1204-1382 (2586)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 37¢	$440.69	$285.85	-$154.84	38% 1372-2226 (3598)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 44.9¢	$288	$154	-$134	49% 4708-4979 (9687)
RN1	Overavg 29.1¢	$44.91	$102.75	+$57.84	54% 6040-5116 (11156)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 49¢	$161.34	$70.79	-$90.55	38% 1352-2201 (3553)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$98	$43	-$55	38% 1372-2254 (3626)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 23.7¢	$6.84	$22.84	+$16	46% 3313-3856 (7169)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 91.6¢	$53.57	$14.04	-$39.53	56% 668-523 (1191)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 21¢	$2.64	$9.93	+$7.29	36% 648-1177 (1825)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 42.2¢	$17.02	$9.69	-$7.34	49% 1346-1426 (2772)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$9.8	$4.8	-$5	38% 1374-2204 (3578)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$6.8	$2.87	-$3.93	78% 389-112 (501)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 35.1¢	$3.89	$2.11	-$1.78	48% 2573-2776 (5349)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 92¢	$5.82	$1.52	-$4.3	53% 2375-2109 (4484)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,927.03

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

52%

2509-2300 (4809)

mouzsynapse

Over

Invested

$267.78

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

41%

166-239 (405)

shaillakhani

Over

Invested

$1,039.93

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$181.09

Record

16-211 (227)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Over

Invested

$124.87

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

48%

487-523 (1010)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$308.64

Value

$411.44

PnL

+$102.81

Record

39%

1592-2508 (4100)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$26.2

Value

$295.63

PnL

+$269.44

Record

47%

1204-1382 (2586)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$440.69

Value

$285.85

PnL

-$154.84

Record

38%

1372-2226 (3598)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$288

Value

$154

PnL

-$134

Record

49%

4708-4979 (9687)

RN1

Over

Invested

$44.91

Value

$102.75

PnL

+$57.84

Record

54%

6040-5116 (11156)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$161.34

Value

$70.79

PnL

-$90.55

Record

38%

1352-2201 (3553)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$98

Value

$43

PnL

-$55

Record

38%

1372-2254 (3626)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$6.84

Value

$22.84

PnL

+$16

Record

46%

3313-3856 (7169)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$53.57

Value

$14.04

PnL

-$39.53

Record

56%

668-523 (1191)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$2.64

Value

$9.93

PnL

+$7.29

Record

36%

648-1177 (1825)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.02

Value

$9.69

PnL

-$7.34

Record

49%

1346-1426 (2772)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.8

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$5

Record

38%

1374-2204 (3578)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.8

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$3.93

Record

78%

389-112 (501)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.89

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$1.78

Record

48%

2573-2776 (5349)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.82

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$4.3

Record

53%

2375-2109 (4484)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (19 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.