Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 59¢ · $905 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 33%
$905.4
$4.49
57.5¢ → 58.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 57.2¢ | $528.45 | $531.18 | +$2.73 | 52% 2473-2263 (4736) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $158.49 | $158.49 | -$0 | 49% 4632-4895 (9527) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $64.97 | $73.3 | +$8.33 | 37% 1333-2226 (3559) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 60.8¢ | $97.02 | $57.94 | -$4.94 | 48% 3948-4293 (8241) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Overavg 43.8¢ | $38.08 | $36.04 | -$2.04 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $35.1 | $35.1 | -$0 | 41% 1173-1667 (2840) |
RI RichieRicher<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $8.85 | $8.85 | +$0 | 55% 493-407 (900) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $2.09 | $2.3 | +$0.21 | 53% 2305-2071 (4376) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $2 | $2.2 | +$0.2 | 38% 1339-2199 (3538) |
Invested
$528.45
Value
$531.18
PnL
+$2.73
Record
52%
2473-2263 (4736)
Invested
$158.49
Value
$158.49
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
4632-4895 (9527)
Invested
$64.97
Value
$73.3
PnL
+$8.33
Record
37%
1333-2226 (3559)
Invested
$97.02
Value
$57.94
PnL
-$4.94
Record
48%
3948-4293 (8241)
Invested
$38.08
Value
$36.04
PnL
-$2.04
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
Invested
$35.1
Value
$35.1
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
1173-1667 (2840)
Invested
$8.85
Value
$8.85
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
493-407 (900)
Invested
$2.09
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
2305-2071 (4376)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
38%
1339-2199 (3538)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.