Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (68%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 33¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Over68¢Under32¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$64.3

Smart Money Entry

36¢ → 32.5¢

-10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,034

Combined PnL-$90.18

Over5 traders

Total Value$546.68

Total Shares821

Combined PnL+$25.89

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 64.7¢	$469.69	$463.03	-$6.66	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
└ Over leg	Overavg 64.7¢	$237.36	$240.38	+$3.01
└ Under leg	Underavg 36¢	$232.32	$222.65	-$9.67
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 38.4¢	$497.08	$421.05	-$76.03	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 34¢	$409.8	$415.82	+$6.03	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 34¢	$335.33	$339.89	+$4.57	42% 548-748 (1296)
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 61¢	$243.95	$264	+$20.05	58% 114-81 (195)
nigiri99	Overavg 66.7¢	$136.13	$137.7	+$1.57	50% 747-737 (1484)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 67¢	$101.1	$97.81	-$3.29	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
└ Over leg	Overavg 67¢	$58.28	$58.71	+$0.43
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.6¢	$42.83	$39.1	-$3.72
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 40.1¢	$91.14	$77.28	-$13.86	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22<$100	Overavg 63.6¢	$67.56	$71.68	+$4.12	52% 15-14 (29)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$73.25	$63.86	-$9.39	35% 635-1160 (1795)
E4 e46m3<$100	Overavg 66¢	$52.85	$52.85	+$0	40% 2677-3972 (6649)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$31.29	$31.29	+$0	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 67¢	$20.3	$20.45	+$0.15	49% 96-101 (197)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 40.2¢	$9.04	$7.64	-$1.4	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$5.94	$5.85	-$0.09	48% 2555-2763 (5318)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$469.69

Value

$463.03

PnL

-$6.66

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

Both legs:

Over$237.3664.7¢+$3.01

Under$232.3236¢-$9.67

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$497.08

Value

$421.05

PnL

-$76.03

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$409.8

Value

$415.82

PnL

+$6.03

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$335.33

Value

$339.89

PnL

+$4.57

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$243.95

Value

$264

PnL

+$20.05

Record

58%

114-81 (195)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$136.13

Value

$137.7

PnL

+$1.57

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$101.1

Value

$97.81

PnL

-$3.29

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

Both legs:

Over$58.2867¢+$0.43

Under$42.8335.6¢-$3.72

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.14

Value

$77.28

PnL

-$13.86

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22<$100

Over

Invested

$67.56

Value

$71.68

PnL

+$4.12

Record

52%

15-14 (29)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.25

Value

$63.86

PnL

-$9.39

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

e46m3<$100

Over

Invested

$52.85

Value

$52.85

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

2677-3972 (6649)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.29

Value

$31.29

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$20.3

Value

$20.45

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

96-101 (197)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.04

Value

$7.64

PnL

-$1.4

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 33%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.