Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 81¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Over81¢Under19¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$15.69

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 81¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,539

Combined PnL-$20.61

Under8 traders

Total Value$591.77

Total Shares3,115

Combined PnL+$4.92

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 82¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$21.32	44% 337-422 (759)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 80¢	$359.83	$362.27	+$2.44	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 19.2¢	$330.22	$326.02	-$4.2	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 18¢	$98.46	$103.93	+$5.47	42% 548-747 (1295)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$67.38	$71.12	+$3.74	59% 3949-2729 (6678)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$42.3	$44.65	+$2.35	48% 471-508 (979)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$19.29	$18.33	-$0.96	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 19.4¢	$12.73	$12.47	-$0.26	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 20.1¢	$11.19	$10.57	-$0.62	41% 1175-1673 (2848)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 80¢	$153.39	$6.66	-$1.73	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 21.4¢	$5.28	$4.69	-$0.6	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$1,748.24

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$21.32

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$359.83

Value

$362.27

PnL

+$2.44

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$330.22

Value

$326.02

PnL

-$4.2

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$98.46

Value

$103.93

PnL

+$5.47

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.38

Value

$71.12

PnL

+$3.74

Record

59%

3949-2729 (6678)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.3

Value

$44.65

PnL

+$2.35

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.29

Value

$18.33

PnL

-$0.96

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.73

Value

$12.47

PnL

-$0.26

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.19

Value

$10.57

PnL

-$0.62

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$153.39

Value

$6.66

PnL

-$1.73

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.28

Value

$4.69

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.