Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Finland, while the market favors San Marino (52%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Finland (-3.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Finland (33%) · Finland at 49¢ · $691 held · ends Nov 15

Finland49¢San Marino51¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Finland

Consensus Traders

Finland 33%

Total Value

$690.7

Combined PnL

$26.54

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 48.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFinland at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Finland

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors San Marino 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Finland49%

San Marino52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Finland3 traders

Total Value$452.36

Total Shares923

Combined PnL+$26.73

San Marino6 traders

Total Value$238.35

Total Shares465

Combined PnL-$0.19

Finland — 33%San Marino — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Finland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSan Marino 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSan Marino 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000San Marino 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Finlandavg 45.9¢	$344.68	$367.74	+$23.07	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Finlandavg 47¢	$68.77	$71.7	+$2.93	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	San Marinoavg 51.5¢	$63.34	$64.58	+$1.23	56% 598-472 (1070)
BI biying99999<$100	San Marinoavg 50.8¢	$55.83	$56.09	+$0.26	37% 129-216 (345)
VeryLucky888<$100	San Marinoavg 53¢	$53	$38.16	-$2.53	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
GH ghorrock<$100	San Marinoavg 52.5¢	$34.3	$27.12	-$0.21	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
SN SnakeBall<$100	San Marinoavg 49¢	$26.52	$27.07	+$0.54	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
OD Oddstorm<$100	San Marinoavg 49¢	$24.83	$25.34	+$0.51	34% 119-227 (346)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Finlandavg 46.2¢	$12.17	$12.92	+$0.74	41% 1108-1568 (2676)

FlaznorpCTR

Finland

Invested

$344.68

Value

$367.74

PnL

+$23.07

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

LimousinCTR<$100

Finland

Invested

$68.77

Value

$71.7

PnL

+$2.93

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

San Marino

Invested

$63.34

Value

$64.58

PnL

+$1.23

Record

56%

598-472 (1070)

biying99999<$100

San Marino

Invested

$55.83

Value

$56.09

PnL

+$0.26

Record

37%

129-216 (345)

VeryLucky888<$100

San Marino

Invested

$53

Value

$38.16

PnL

-$2.53

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

ghorrock<$100

San Marino

Invested

$34.3

Value

$27.12

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

SnakeBall<$100

San Marino

Invested

$26.52

Value

$27.07

PnL

+$0.54

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

Oddstorm<$100

San Marino

Invested

$24.83

Value

$25.34

PnL

+$0.51

Record

34%

119-227 (346)

sentrioCTR<$100

Finland

Invested

$12.17

Value

$12.92

PnL

+$0.74

Record

41%

1108-1568 (2676)

Research grade

NeutralFinland at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Finland

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors San Marino 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Finland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSan Marino 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSan Marino 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000San Marino 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Finland wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.