Spread: Finland (-2.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Finland (22%) · Finland at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Finland75¢San Marino25¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Finland

Consensus Traders

Finland 22%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$10.01

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 74.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFinland at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Finland

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Finland75%

San Marino26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Finland2 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,304

Combined PnL+$23.33

San Marino7 traders

Total Value$525.39

Total Shares2,044

Combined PnL-$33.33

Finland — 22%San Marino — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Finland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSan Marino 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSan Marino 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000San Marino 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Finlandavg 73.4¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$12.96	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
SU suntori	Finlandavg 71.1¢	$213.63	$223.99	+$10.37	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
FL FlaznorpCTR	San Marinoavg 27.4¢	$224.6	$208.79	-$15.81	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
nigiri99CTR	San Marinoavg 25.5¢	$194.04	$194.06	+$0.02	50% 747-737 (1484)
38 38791873984189CTR	San Marinoavg 27.1¢	$409.44	$68.94	-$9.98	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	San Marinoavg 28.4¢	$37.73	$33.93	-$3.8	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	San Marinoavg 31.3¢	$10.72	$8.57	-$2.15	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	San Marinoavg 31¢	$8.68	$7	-$1.68	48% 472-515 (987)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	San Marinoavg 25¢	$4.04	$4.12	+$0.08	48% 2555-2763 (5318)

GoalLineGhost

Finland

Invested

$2,428.1

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$12.96

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

suntori

Finland

Invested

$213.63

Value

$223.99

PnL

+$10.37

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

FlaznorpCTR

San Marino

Invested

$224.6

Value

$208.79

PnL

-$15.81

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

nigiri99CTR

San Marino

Invested

$194.04

Value

$194.06

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

38791873984189CTR

San Marino

Invested

$409.44

Value

$68.94

PnL

-$9.98

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

sentrioCTR<$100

San Marino

Invested

$37.73

Value

$33.93

PnL

-$3.8

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

ghorrockCTR<$100

San Marino

Invested

$10.72

Value

$8.57

PnL

-$2.15

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

San Marino

Invested

$8.68

Value

PnL

-$1.68

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

San Marino

Invested

$4.04

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

Research grade

NeutralFinland at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Finland

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Finland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSan Marino 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSan Marino 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000San Marino 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Finland wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.