Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (82%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Finland leading at halftime?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 19¢ · $762 held · ends Nov 15

Yes82¢No18¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$761.65

Combined PnL

-$15.29

Smart Money Entry

18.8¢ → 18.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$573.29

Total Shares3,126

Combined PnL-$14.14

Yes1 trader

Total Value$188.36

Total Shares231

Combined PnL-$1.16

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 18.6¢	$373.88	$371.18	-$2.7	49% 4576-4835 (9411)
SU suntori	Yesavg 82¢	$189.52	$188.36	-$1.16	46% 3134-3672 (6806)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 19.3¢	$98.54	$92.1	-$6.44	48% 3920-4262 (8182)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 19.2¢	$47.31	$44.34	-$2.98	52% 2443-2220 (4663)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 19.2¢	$38.77	$36.33	-$2.44	41% 1163-1648 (2811)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$19.46	$20	+$0.54	48% 468-503 (971)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$5.24	$5.24	+$0	47% 1165-1328 (2493)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$2.07	$2.07	+$0	48% 2479-2702 (5181)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$2.15	$2.04	-$0.11	53% 2282-2055 (4337)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$373.88

Value

$371.18

PnL

-$2.7

Record

49%

4576-4835 (9411)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$189.52

Value

$188.36

PnL

-$1.16

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$98.54

Value

$92.1

PnL

-$6.44

Record

48%

3920-4262 (8182)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$47.31

Value

$44.34

PnL

-$2.98

Record

52%

2443-2220 (4663)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$38.77

Value

$36.33

PnL

-$2.44

Record

41%

1163-1648 (2811)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$19.46

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.54

Record

48%

468-503 (971)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$5.24

Value

$5.24

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1165-1328 (2493)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$2.07

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2479-2702 (5181)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.