San Marino leading at halftime?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$2.02

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 97.9¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,758

Combined PnL+$2.16

Yes3 traders

Total Value$101.38

Total Shares4,696

Combined PnL-$0.14

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 97.8¢	$635.7	$637	+$1.3	35% 612-1118 (1730)
LI Limousin	Noavg 97.8¢	$319.97	$320.31	+$0.34	38% 1289-2127 (3416)
VE Venusian	Noavg 97.9¢	$309.57	$309.83	+$0.26	38% 1314-2159 (3473)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97.8¢	$287.49	$287.8	+$0.32	38% 1316-2144 (3460)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$96.76	$96.62	-$0.14	48% 468-503 (971)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$75.62	$73.49	-$2.13	49% 4576-4835 (9411)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$69.88	$69.97	+$0.09	37% 1308-2191 (3499)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$24.02	$26	+$1.98	41% 1163-1648 (2811)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$1.88	$1.89	+$0.01	48% 2479-2702 (5181)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$635.7

Value

$637

PnL

+$1.3

Record

35%

612-1118 (1730)

Limousin

Invested

$319.97

Value

$320.31

PnL

+$0.34

Record

38%

1289-2127 (3416)

Venusian

Invested

$309.57

Value

$309.83

PnL

+$0.26

Record

38%

1314-2159 (3473)

MadridTime

Invested

$287.49

Value

$287.8

PnL

+$0.32

Record

38%

1316-2144 (3460)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$96.76

Value

$96.62

PnL

-$0.14

Record

48%

468-503 (971)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.62

Value

$73.49

PnL

-$2.13

Record

49%

4576-4835 (9411)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$69.88

Value

$69.97

PnL

+$0.09

Record

37%

1308-2191 (3499)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.02

Value

$26

PnL

+$1.98

Record

41%

1163-1648 (2811)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

2479-2702 (5181)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.