Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (65%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Finland vs. San Marino: 1st Half O/U 1.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (90%) · Under at 36¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Over65¢Under35¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 90%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$66.29

Smart Money Entry

38¢ → 35.5¢

-7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,219

Combined PnL-$67.57

Over1 trader

Total Value$55.28

Total Shares86

Combined PnL+$1.29

Under — 90%Over — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lonmi2511CTR	Underavg 39.3¢	$475.1	$428.91	-$46.18	59% 747-512 (1259)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 37¢	$383.67	$383.67	+$0	42% 548-748 (1296)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 36.9¢	$254.18	$251.22	-$2.96	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 36.9¢	$177.56	$175.75	-$1.8	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 39.3¢	$145.22	$136.62	-$8.6	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 38.5¢	$115.5	$111	-$4.5	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 63¢	$53.99	$55.28	+$1.29	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 40.1¢	$30.24	$27.89	-$2.36	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$15.68	$14.51	-$1.18	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 35.5¢	$7.16	$7.16	-$0	56% 656-516 (1172)

lonmi2511CTR

Under

Invested

$475.1

Value

$428.91

PnL

-$46.18

Record

59%

747-512 (1259)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$383.67

Value

$383.67

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$254.18

Value

$251.22

PnL

-$2.96

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$177.56

Value

$175.75

PnL

-$1.8

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$145.22

Value

$136.62

PnL

-$8.6

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$115.5

Value

$111

PnL

-$4.5

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$53.99

Value

$55.28

PnL

+$1.29

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.24

Value

$27.89

PnL

-$2.36

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.68

Value

$14.51

PnL

-$1.18

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.16

Value

$7.16

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

656-516 (1172)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 36%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.