Exact Score: Finland 3 - 1 San Marino?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 97¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 15

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$56.33

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 96.7¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares12,117

Combined PnL+$52.02

Yes5 traders

Total Value$519.97

Total Shares13,230

Combined PnL+$4.31

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-83 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 96.1¢	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$37.45	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
VE Venusian	Noavg 96.1¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$14.97	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 96.1¢	$740.83	$740.44	-$0.39	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$505.35	$511.74	+$6.39	48% 469-508 (977)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$28.83	$28.82	-$0.01	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$7.86	$6.14	-$1.71	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.52	$1.14	-$0.38	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.7	$0.77	+$0.07	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.23	$0.17	-$0.06	41% 1173-1667 (2840)

Limousin

Invested

$7,998.53

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$37.45

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

Venusian

Invested

$2,876.69

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$14.97

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

MadridTime

Invested

$740.83

Value

$740.44

PnL

-$0.39

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Yes

Invested

$505.35

Value

$511.74

PnL

+$6.39

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$28.83

Value

$28.82

PnL

-$0.01

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.86

Value

$6.14

PnL

-$1.71

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.52

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.38

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.77

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.06

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-83 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.