Exact Score: Finland 3 - 0 San Marino?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $381 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$381.16

Combined PnL

$57.4

Smart Money Entry

87.5¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$374.9

Total Shares375

Combined PnL+$37.15

Yes3 traders

Total Value$6.26

Total Shares119

Combined PnL+$20.25

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 84¢	$159.84	$188.91	+$29.07	48% 487-523 (1010)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 92¢	$65.8	$62.5	-$3.3	49% 4708-4979 (9687)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$47.75	$56.22	+$8.47	47% 1204-1382 (2586)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 98¢	$53.09	$54.14	+$1.06	38% 1352-2201 (3553)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Noavg 86¢	$6.02	$7	+$0.98	44% 339-425 (764)
FO forecastication4<$100	Noavg 84¢	$5.25	$6.12	+$0.87	36% 204-361 (565)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 6.1¢	$192.56	$5.8	+$21.88	48% 3992-4380 (8372)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$1.04	$0.46	-$0.59	46% 3313-3856 (7169)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$1.05	$0	-$1.05	48% 2573-2776 (5349)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$159.84

Value

$188.91

PnL

+$29.07

Record

48%

487-523 (1010)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$65.8

Value

$62.5

PnL

-$3.3

Record

49%

4708-4979 (9687)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$47.75

Value

$56.22

PnL

+$8.47

Record

47%

1204-1382 (2586)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$53.09

Value

$54.14

PnL

+$1.06

Record

38%

1352-2201 (3553)

Forecastication2<$100

Invested

$6.02

Value

PnL

+$0.98

Record

44%

339-425 (764)

forecastication4<$100

Invested

$5.25

Value

$6.12

PnL

+$0.87

Record

36%

204-361 (565)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$192.56

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$21.88

Record

48%

3992-4380 (8372)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.59

Record

46%

3313-3856 (7169)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

PnL

-$1.05

Record

48%

2573-2776 (5349)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.