Finland vs. San Marino: Both Teams to Score

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 80¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$178.3

Smart Money Entry

76.9¢ → 80¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,601

Combined PnL+$138.44

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares9,526

Combined PnL-$316.74

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Noavg 76.9¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$138.37	58% 114-81 (195)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 23.6¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$214.76	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
SE sentrioCTR	Yesavg 23.7¢	$497.75	$431.16	-$66.59	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$191.95	$167.96	-$23.99	30% 486-1128 (1614)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$111.38	$110.94	-$0.44	42% 547-747 (1294)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.9¢	$53.44	$55.63	+$2.19
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22¢	$57.95	$55.31	-$2.63
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$65.78	$54.72	-$11.06	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 20.5¢	$170.04	$46.38	+$3.73	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 75¢	$31.5	$31.5	+$0	56% 649-514 (1163)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Noavg 74.8¢	$29.93	$30	+$0.07	44% 337-422 (759)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$31.02	$29.61	-$1.41	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.8¢	$25.08	$22.43	-$2.65	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

Zzzz87

Invested

$3,476.9

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$138.37

Record

58%

114-81 (195)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,401.15

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$214.76

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

sentrioCTR

Yes

Invested

$497.75

Value

$431.16

PnL

-$66.59

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$191.95

Value

$167.96

PnL

-$23.99

Record

30%

486-1128 (1614)

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$111.38

Value

$110.94

PnL

-$0.44

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

Both legs:

Invested

$65.78

Value

$54.72

PnL

-$11.06

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$170.04

Value

$46.38

PnL

+$3.73

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.5

Value

$31.5

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

Forecastication2<$100

Invested

$29.93

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.07

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.02

Value

$29.61

PnL

-$1.41

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.08

Value

$22.43

PnL

-$2.65

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.