Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spain vs. England: O/U 2.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 41¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Over60¢Under40¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$1.78

Smart Money Entry

40.4¢ → 40.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,926

Combined PnL+$8.71

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,194

Combined PnL-$6.93

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 40¢	$933.85	$945.52	+$11.67	38% 1229-2023 (3252)
GC GC-P	Overavg 60¢	$550.37	$545.78	-$4.59	41% 498-709 (1207)
NM NM-P	Overavg 60¢	$550.26	$545.68	-$4.59	59% 3902-2685 (6587)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 42¢	$203.27	$200.85	-$2.42	48% 4388-4660 (9048)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 60¢	$94.48	$94.59	+$0.11	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
DV dv-pm<$100	Overavg 58¢	$69.02	$70.21	+$1.19	45% 42-52 (94)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$45.22	$44.68	-$0.54	41% 1132-1606 (2738)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 59¢	$40.12	$41.14	+$1.02	45% 298-371 (669)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 60¢	$12.14	$12.04	-$0.1	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Overavg 58¢	$1.38	$1.4	+$0.02	35% 129-237 (366)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$933.85

Value

$945.52

PnL

+$11.67

Record

38%

1229-2023 (3252)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$550.37

Value

$545.78

PnL

-$4.59

Record

41%

498-709 (1207)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$550.26

Value

$545.68

PnL

-$4.59

Record

59%

3902-2685 (6587)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$203.27

Value

$200.85

PnL

-$2.42

Record

48%

4388-4660 (9048)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$94.48

Value

$94.59

PnL

+$0.11

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

dv-pm<$100

Over

Invested

$69.02

Value

$70.21

PnL

+$1.19

Record

45%

42-52 (94)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.22

Value

$44.68

PnL

-$0.54

Record

41%

1132-1606 (2738)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$40.12

Value

$41.14

PnL

+$1.02

Record

45%

298-371 (669)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$12.14

Value

$12.04

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

Oddstorm<$100

Over

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.02

Record

35%

129-237 (366)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.