Spain vs. England: O/U 1.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 84¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Over84¢Under16¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$1.38

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 83.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,787

Combined PnL-$6.18

Under8 traders

Total Value$439.97

Total Shares2,653

Combined PnL+$7.56

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Overavg 84¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$6.25	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 83¢	$427.4	$427.45	+$0.05	58% 114-81 (195)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 17¢	$153.67	$152.05	-$1.62	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
└ Under leg	Underavg 17¢	$86.7	$84.15	-$2.55
└ Over leg	Overavg 82.4¢	$66.97	$67.9	+$0.93
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 16¢	$142.37	$146.82	+$4.45	42% 548-748 (1296)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 16¢	$133.75	$137.93	+$4.18	48% 472-515 (987)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 17.6¢	$61.9	$59.74	-$2.16	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$55.23	$56.95	+$1.73	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 17.6¢	$14.56	$14.08	-$0.48	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$11.24	$11.59	+$0.35	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$9.35	$9.08	-$0.27	50% 747-737 (1484)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$4.01	$3.79	-$0.22	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
HY hydra1248<$100	Overavg 82¢	$1.56	$1.58	+$0.02	73% 237-86 (323)

suntori

Over

Invested

$1,066.66

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$6.25

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$427.4

Value

$427.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

114-81 (195)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$153.67

Value

$152.05

PnL

-$1.62

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

Both legs:

Under$86.717¢-$2.55

Over$66.9782.4¢+$0.93

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$142.37

Value

$146.82

PnL

+$4.45

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$133.75

Value

$137.93

PnL

+$4.18

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$61.9

Value

$59.74

PnL

-$2.16

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.23

Value

$56.95

PnL

+$1.73

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.56

Value

$14.08

PnL

-$0.48

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.24

Value

$11.59

PnL

+$0.35

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.35

Value

$9.08

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.01

Value

$3.79

PnL

-$0.22

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

hydra1248<$100

Over

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0.02

Record

73%

237-86 (323)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.