Spain vs. England: O/U 0.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Over96¢Under4¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$0.13

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 95.9¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over96%

Under4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,689

Combined PnL-$1.58

Under6 traders

Total Value$172.06

Total Shares4,056

Combined PnL+$1.45

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 96¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$2.7	58% 114-81 (195)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Overavg 95.6¢	$500	$501.04	+$1.05	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 4¢	$123.84	$126.93	+$3.1	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 95.6¢	$23.61	$23.69	+$0.07	49% 96-101 (197)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 4.4¢	$23.33	$21.9	-$1.43	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 4.1¢	$238.71	$14.83	+$0.19	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 4.4¢	$6.48	$6.16	-$0.32	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Underavg 4.2¢	$2.02	$1.97	-$0.05	35% 139-253 (392)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 4.7¢	$0.3	$0.26	-$0.03	47% 1199-1376 (2575)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$3,973.92

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$2.7

Record

58%

114-81 (195)

xtxpleasecallme

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$501.04

PnL

+$1.05

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$123.84

Value

$126.93

PnL

+$3.1

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$23.61

Value

$23.69

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

96-101 (197)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.33

Value

$21.9

PnL

-$1.43

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$238.71

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$0.19

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.48

Value

$6.16

PnL

-$0.32

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

OddstormCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.02

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$0.05

Record

35%

139-253 (392)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.