Spread: Spain (-1.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold England (64%) · England at 74¢ · $709 held · ends Nov 15

Spain27¢England73¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

England

Consensus Traders

England 64%

Total Value

$709.39

Combined PnL

$12.41

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 73.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralEngland at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

England

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spain27%

England74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

England7 traders

Total Value$659.91

Total Shares861

Combined PnL+$13.18

Spain4 traders

Total Value$49.49

Total Shares190

Combined PnL-$0.77

England — 64%Spain — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on England. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEngland 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000England 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Englandavg 71.9¢	$357.51	$363.96	+$6.45	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
38 38791873984189	Englandavg 72¢	$108	$108	+$0	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
DV dv-pm<$100	Englandavg 67¢	$79.73	$85.68	+$5.95	46% 45-53 (98)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Englandavg 72¢	$84.24	$84.24	+$0	48% 471-508 (979)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Spainavg 26¢	$38.3	$38.3	+$0	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Spainavg 28.5¢	$9.06	$8.28	-$0.78	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0xheavy888<$100	Englandavg 73¢	$8.22	$8.28	+$0.06	56% 665-530 (1195)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Englandavg 67¢	$5.73	$6.15	+$0.43	56% 651-514 (1165)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Englandavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.6	+$0.3	16% 58-297 (355)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Spainavg 26¢	$1.76	$1.79	+$0.03	41% 1175-1673 (2848)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Spainavg 27¢	$1.14	$1.12	-$0.02	46% 3240-3776 (7016)

GoalLineGhost

England

Invested

$357.51

Value

$363.96

PnL

+$6.45

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

38791873984189

England

Invested

$108

Value

$108

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

dv-pm<$100

England

Invested

$79.73

Value

$85.68

PnL

+$5.95

Record

46%

45-53 (98)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

England

Invested

$84.24

Value

$84.24

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Spain

Invested

$38.3

Value

$38.3

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Spain

Invested

$9.06

Value

$8.28

PnL

-$0.78

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0xheavy888<$100

England

Invested

$8.22

Value

$8.28

PnL

+$0.06

Record

56%

665-530 (1195)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

England

Invested

$5.73

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0.43

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

rayvanmechelen<$100

England

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

16%

58-297 (355)

sentrioCTR<$100

Spain

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.79

PnL

+$0.03

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

suntoriCTR<$100

Spain

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

Research grade

NeutralEngland at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

England

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on England. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEngland 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000England 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that England wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.