Spread: England (-1.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Spain (54%) · Spain at 76¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

England24¢Spain76¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spain

Consensus Traders

Spain 54%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$71.48

Smart Money Entry

87.6¢ → 76¢

-13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpain at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spain

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

England24%

Spain76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spain7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,783

Combined PnL-$102.54

England6 traders

Total Value$114.77

Total Shares675

Combined PnL+$31.06

Spain — 54%England — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Spain. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEngland 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEngland 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Spain 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Spainavg 88.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$62.16	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spainavg 86¢	$571.35	$568.03	-$3.32	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
FO forecastication4	Spainavg 87¢	$497.47	$503.18	+$5.72	36% 204-361 (565)
38 38791873984189	Spainavg 87.6¢	$374.87	$325.23	-$32.01	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
FO foooool	Spainavg 84¢	$134.98	$124.54	-$10.44	42% 140-193 (333)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Englandavg 14¢	$34.01	$54.66	+$20.65	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
tradecraft<$100	Spainavg 87¢	$39.53	$39.59	+$0.06	35% 485-917 (1402)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Englandavg 10¢	$21.4	$25.68	+$4.28	44% 339-425 (764)
GH ghorrock<$100	Spainavg 90¢	$17.36	$16.98	-$0.39	53% 2377-2113 (4490)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Englandavg 11¢	$8.46	$9.23	+$0.77	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Englandavg 14¢	$5.55	$8.92	+$3.37	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Englandavg 13¢	$8.58	$8.25	-$0.33	50% 748-738 (1486)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Englandavg 16¢	$5.71	$8.03	+$2.32	48% 98-106 (204)

GoalLineGhost

Spain

Invested

$1,721.12

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$62.16

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spain

Invested

$571.35

Value

$568.03

PnL

-$3.32

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

forecastication4

Spain

Invested

$497.47

Value

$503.18

PnL

+$5.72

Record

36%

204-361 (565)

38791873984189

Spain

Invested

$374.87

Value

$325.23

PnL

-$32.01

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

foooool

Spain

Invested

$134.98

Value

$124.54

PnL

-$10.44

Record

42%

140-193 (333)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

England

Invested

$34.01

Value

$54.66

PnL

+$20.65

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

tradecraft<$100

Spain

Invested

$39.53

Value

$39.59

PnL

+$0.06

Record

35%

485-917 (1402)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

England

Invested

$21.4

Value

$25.68

PnL

+$4.28

Record

44%

339-425 (764)

ghorrock<$100

Spain

Invested

$17.36

Value

$16.98

PnL

-$0.39

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

England

Invested

$8.46

Value

$9.23

PnL

+$0.77

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

England

Invested

$5.55

Value

$8.92

PnL

+$3.37

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

nigiri99CTR<$100

England

Invested

$8.58

Value

$8.25

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

England

Invested

$5.71

Value

$8.03

PnL

+$2.32

Record

48%

98-106 (204)

Research grade

NeutralSpain at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spain

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Spain. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEngland 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEngland 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Spain 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spain wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.