Spain vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 52¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$329.64

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 52¢

-7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares13,623

Combined PnL+$49.79

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,015

Combined PnL+$279.85

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Underavg 56.4¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$19.3	59% 3960-2731 (6691)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 56¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.61	52% 2694-2510 (5204)
GC GC-P	Underavg 57.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$4.09	43% 561-753 (1314)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 44¢	$821.48	$1.1K	+$280.05	50% 748-738 (1486)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 54¢	$915.21	$966.06	+$50.85	60% 533-362 (895)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 56.2¢	$702.5	$667.77	+$4.09	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
NO Notradecopy	Underavg 55¢	$500	$518.18	+$18.18	25% 69-208 (277)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Underavg 55¢	$500	$518.18	+$18.18	57% 63-48 (111)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 41¢	$429.62	$448.82	+$69.61	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41¢	$248.05	$341.83	+$97.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.8¢	$134.83	$107	-$27.83
38 38791873984189	Underavg 57.1¢	$551.83	$374.7	-$85.66	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 55¢	$330	$342	+$12	47% 41-47 (88)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 59.1¢	$95.11	$93.26	-$1.85	56% 672-523 (1195)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 41.9¢	$52.37	$51.82	-$0.55	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$5.07	$5.33	+$0.25	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$4.17	$4.27	+$0.1	41% 1195-1702 (2897)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$1,921.11

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$19.3

Record

59%

3960-2731 (6691)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$1,187.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.61

Record

52%

2694-2510 (5204)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$1,114.37

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$4.09

Record

43%

561-753 (1314)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$821.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$280.05

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$915.21

Value

$966.06

PnL

+$50.85

Record

60%

533-362 (895)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$702.5

Value

$667.77

PnL

+$4.09

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

Notradecopy

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$518.18

PnL

+$18.18

Record

25%

69-208 (277)

GamblingAddict12345

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$518.18

PnL

+$18.18

Record

57%

63-48 (111)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$429.62

Value

$448.82

PnL

+$69.61

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

Both legs:

Over$248.0541¢+$97.45

Under$134.8354.8¢-$27.83

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$551.83

Value

$374.7

PnL

-$85.66

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$330

Value

$342

PnL

+$12

Record

47%

41-47 (88)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$95.11

Value

$93.26

PnL

-$1.85

Record

56%

672-523 (1195)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.37

Value

$51.82

PnL

-$0.55

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$0.25

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.17

Value

$4.27

PnL

+$0.1

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.