Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 England?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 98¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$7.1K
-$15.42
98.1¢ → 98.3¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$1.04 | 44% 339-425 (764) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 98.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$2.32 | 59% 3960-2731 (6691) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 98.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0 | 36% 649-1179 (1828) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 98.1¢ | $850.5 | $851.42 | +$0.92 | 43% 561-753 (1314) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 98.1¢ | $687.18 | $687.33 | +$0.15 | 47% 1204-1385 (2589) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 98.3¢ | $499.99 | $499.1 | -$0.89 | 38% 3843-6310 (10153) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $54.05 | $40 | -$14.05 | 20% 30-119 (149) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $21.69 | $19.81 | -$1.88 | 46% 3336-3878 (7214) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $187.3 | $9.17 | -$3.03 | 48% 3997-4384 (8381) |
Invested
$2,048.45
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1.04
Record
44%
339-425 (764)
Invested
$1,552.13
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$2.32
Record
59%
3960-2731 (6691)
Invested
$1,357.99
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
649-1179 (1828)
Invested
$850.5
Value
$851.42
PnL
+$0.92
Record
43%
561-753 (1314)
Invested
$687.18
Value
$687.33
PnL
+$0.15
Record
47%
1204-1385 (2589)
Invested
$499.99
Value
$499.1
PnL
-$0.89
Record
38%
3843-6310 (10153)
Invested
$54.05
Value
$40
PnL
-$14.05
Record
20%
30-119 (149)
Invested
$21.69
Value
$19.81
PnL
-$1.88
Record
46%
3336-3878 (7214)
Invested
$187.3
Value
$9.17
PnL
-$3.03
Record
48%
3997-4384 (8381)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.