Exact Score: Spain 2 - 4 England?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$33.41

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99.3¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,002

Combined PnL+$13.66

Yes4 traders

Total Value$109.67

Total Shares7,882

Combined PnL-$47.07

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.8¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$11.11	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 98.6¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$1.64	35% 669-1223 (1892)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 98.5¢	$540.69	$370.13	+$1.27	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 98.9¢	$172.01	$171.66	-$0.35	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$58.87	$59.21	+$0.34	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$26.39	-$27.67	20% 30-119 (149)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$74.46	$18.04	-$13.42	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$6.77	$6.76	-$0.01	53% 2390-2132 (4522)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$12.35	$6.03	-$6.32	38% 3874-6342 (10216)

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,258.97

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$11.11

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$2,130.8

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.64

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$540.69

Value

$370.13

PnL

+$1.27

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

LightParadox

Invested

$172.01

Value

$171.66

PnL

-$0.35

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.87

Value

$59.21

PnL

+$0.34

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$26.39

PnL

-$27.67

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.46

Value

$18.04

PnL

-$13.42

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.77

Value

$6.76

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.35

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$6.32

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.