Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 England?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 5.1¢ · $454 held · ends Nov 15

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$453.94

Combined PnL

$54.6

Smart Money Entry

4.2¢ → 5.1¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$313.72

Total Shares6,191

Combined PnL+$54.77

No4 traders

Total Value$140.22

Total Shares136

Combined PnL-$0.17

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 4.9¢	$174.6	$182.64	+$8.05	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$100	+$45.95	20% 30-119 (149)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$80.21	$80.13	-$0.08	42% 547-747 (1294)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$46.25	$46.1	-$0.14	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$28.31	$28.86	+$0.55	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$20.98	$7	+$0.02	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$7.51	$6.99	+$0.03	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$1.16	$1.21	+$0.05	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$0.82	$1	+$0.18	57% 3682-2767 (6449)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$174.6

Value

$182.64

PnL

+$8.05

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$100

PnL

+$45.95

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$80.21

Value

$80.13

PnL

-$0.08

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$46.25

Value

$46.1

PnL

-$0.14

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.31

Value

$28.86

PnL

+$0.55

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$20.98

Value

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.51

Value

$6.99

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.21

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

PnL

+$0.18

Record

57%

3682-2767 (6449)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.4%

5.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1465.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

1565.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.