Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Spain win on 2026-11-15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 45¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$45.66

Smart Money Entry

42.6¢ → 44.5¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$821.95

Total Shares1,847

Combined PnL+$34.64

Yes3 traders

Total Value$115.92

Total Shares202

Combined PnL+$11.02

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelenCTR	Noavg 43¢	$440.73	$456.1	+$15.37	6% 17-277 (294)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 44¢	$124.53	$125.95	+$1.42	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
P1 P1kasoCTR	Noavg 38¢	$90.28	$105.72	+$15.44	14% 18-112 (130)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$85.38	$84.77	-$0.61	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57¢	$58.56	$57.02	-$1.54
└ No leg	Noavg 43¢	$26.81	$27.75	+$0.94
38 38791873984189<$100	Yesavg 56.4¢	$96.21	$69.92	+$8.72	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$57.45	$58.1	+$0.65	43% 808-1065 (1873)
leflaiveCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$44	$44.5	+$0.5	48% 11-12 (23)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$31.92	$31.08	-$0.84	56% 307-245 (552)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$29.14	$30.16	+$1.02	33% 251-499 (750)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 56.5¢	$19.11	$14.92	+$3.14	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$1.17	$1.41	+$0.24	53% 6618-5816 (12434)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Invested

$440.73

Value

$456.1

PnL

+$15.37

Record

17-277 (294)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$124.53

Value

$125.95

PnL

+$1.42

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

P1kasoCTR

Invested

$90.28

Value

$105.72

PnL

+$15.44

Record

14%

18-112 (130)

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.38

Value

$84.77

PnL

-$0.61

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Invested

$96.21

Value

$69.92

PnL

+$8.72

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$57.45

Value

$58.1

PnL

+$0.65

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

leflaiveCTR<$100

Invested

$44

Value

$44.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

11-12 (23)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.92

Value

$31.08

PnL

-$0.84

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$29.14

Value

$30.16

PnL

+$1.02

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.11

Value

$14.92

PnL

+$3.14

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.41

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.