Spain vs. England: Both Teams to Score

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 59¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$46.8

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 58.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$471.73

Total Shares1,165

Combined PnL+$5.6

Yes6 traders

Total Value$528.92

Total Shares874

Combined PnL+$41.2

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 40¢	$462.18	$467.68	+$5.5	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 56.8¢	$512.91	$236.1	+$31.94	53% 1337-1165 (2502)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 58.4¢	$135.68	$140.39	+$4.71	56% 460-366 (826)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.4¢	$73.04	$74.38	+$1.34
└ No leg	Noavg 38.4¢	$62.64	$66.02	+$3.38
GC GC-P	Yesavg 57.4¢	$118.76	$123.11	+$4.34	37% 351-603 (954)
NM NM-P	Yesavg 57.4¢	$118.76	$123.11	+$4.34	59% 3761-2587 (6348)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 58.2¢	$119.87	$106.33	+$4.53	48% 3196-3499 (6695)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.2¢	$64.4	$65.83	+$0.97
└ No leg	Noavg 38.4¢	$38.36	$40.5	+$3.56
TA takeormake<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$21.86	$21.86	+$0	57% 3574-2660 (6234)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$23.47	$19.53	+$0.66	52% 1709-1558 (3267)
HY hydra1248<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$5.31	$5.22	-$0.09	75% 187-64 (251)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 39.5¢	$3.95	$4.05	+$0.1	42% 989-1357 (2346)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$462.18

Value

$467.68

PnL

+$5.5

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$512.91

Value

$236.1

PnL

+$31.94

Record

53%

1337-1165 (2502)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$135.68

Value

$140.39

PnL

+$4.71

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

Both legs:

Invested

$118.76

Value

$123.11

PnL

+$4.34

Record

37%

351-603 (954)

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$118.76

Value

$123.11

PnL

+$4.34

Record

59%

3761-2587 (6348)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$119.87

Value

$106.33

PnL

+$4.53

Record

48%

3196-3499 (6695)

Both legs:

Invested

$21.86

Value

$21.86

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3574-2660 (6234)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.47

Value

$19.53

PnL

+$0.66

Record

52%

1709-1558 (3267)

hydra1248<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.31

Value

$5.22

PnL

-$0.09

Record

75%

187-64 (251)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.1

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.