England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over1¢Under99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$15.08

Smart Money Entry

94.3¢ → 99¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$920.04

Total Shares941

Combined PnL+$27.14

Over6 traders

Total Value$19.65

Total Shares725

Combined PnL-$12.06

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (10 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 94.4¢	$402.3	$410.07	+$7.77	46% 485-564 (1049)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 93.7¢	$237.52	$251.64	+$14.12	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
RN1	Underavg 94.6¢	$244.21	$249.76	+$5.55	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 5.5¢	$244.18	$85.75	-$158.24	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
└ Under leg	Underavg 94.6¢	$41.86	$43.72	+$1.86
└ Over leg	Overavg 5.5¢	$201.96	$42.03	-$160.1
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 3.2¢	$10.16	$10.47	+$0.31	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 95.6¢	$9.57	$8.58	-$0.3	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 2.7¢	$2.89	$3.43	+$0.54	35% 221-416 (637)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$5.99	$3.24	-$2.74	33% 585-1187 (1772)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 6.4¢	$10.34	$1.85	-$8.49	33% 563-1169 (1732)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 5.8¢	$0.65	$0.36	-$0.29	54% 1032-892 (1924)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 6.5¢	$1.69	$0.3	-$1.39	34% 592-1164 (1756)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$402.3

Value

$410.07

PnL

+$7.77

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$237.52

Value

$251.64

PnL

+$14.12

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

RN1

Under

Invested

$244.21

Value

$249.76

PnL

+$5.55

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$244.18

Value

$85.75

PnL

-$158.24

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

Both legs:

Under$41.8694.6¢+$1.86

Over$201.965.5¢-$160.1

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.16

Value

$10.47

PnL

+$0.31

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$9.57

Value

$8.58

PnL

-$0.3

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.89

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.54

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.99

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$2.74

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.34

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$8.49

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$0.29

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.69

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$1.39

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (10 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.