England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 88¢ · $964 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$963.71
-$0.97
87.8¢ → 87.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 88¢ | $664.25 | $660.48 | -$3.77 | 46% 438-515 (953) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 87¢ | $135.45 | $137.01 | +$1.56 | 48% 2125-2324 (4449) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 12¢ | $92.98 | $96.85 | +$3.87 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $19.99 | $18.45 | -$1.54 | 47% 1541-1714 (3255) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $18.43 | $17.01 | -$1.42 | 33% 551-1131 (1682) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $16.17 | $16.38 | +$0.21 | 53% 922-814 (1736) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $13.05 | $13.13 | +$0.07 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $4.4 | +$0.05 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
Invested
$664.25
Value
$660.48
PnL
-$3.77
Record
46%
438-515 (953)
Invested
$135.45
Value
$137.01
PnL
+$1.56
Record
48%
2125-2324 (4449)
Invested
$92.98
Value
$96.85
PnL
+$3.87
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Invested
$19.99
Value
$18.45
PnL
-$1.54
Record
47%
1541-1714 (3255)
Invested
$18.43
Value
$17.01
PnL
-$1.42
Record
33%
551-1131 (1682)
Invested
$16.17
Value
$16.38
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
922-814 (1736)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$13.13
PnL
+$0.07
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$4.4
PnL
+$0.05
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.