England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 76¢ · $827 held · ends Nov 12

Over25¢Under75¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$826.72

Combined PnL

$11.15

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 75.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$514.43

Total Shares678

Combined PnL+$11.28

Over2 traders

Total Value$8.15

Total Shares33

Combined PnL-$0.13

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 72¢	$292.07	$304.13	+$12.07	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
└ Under leg	Underavg 72¢	$233.28	$243	+$9.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 24¢	$58.79	$61.13	+$2.35
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 74.3¢	$245.24	$249.08	+$3.83	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 72¢	$148.32	$154.5	+$6.18	39% 74-117 (191)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 76¢	$99.56	$98.91	-$0.66	52% 350-326 (676)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 73¢	$11.53	$6.95	+$0.42	53% 925-815 (1740)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 24.4¢	$6.75	$6.78	+$0.04	41% 543-780 (1323)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 75¢	$111	$5	+$1.5	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$1.54	$1.37	-$0.17	47% 1547-1731 (3278)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$292.07

Value

$304.13

PnL

+$12.07

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

Both legs:

Under$233.2872¢+$9.72

Over$58.7924¢+$2.35

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$245.24

Value

$249.08

PnL

+$3.83

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$148.32

Value

$154.5

PnL

+$6.18

Record

39%

74-117 (191)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$99.56

Value

$98.91

PnL

-$0.66

Record

52%

350-326 (676)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$11.53

Value

$6.95

PnL

+$0.42

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.75

Value

$6.78

PnL

+$0.04

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$111

Value

PnL

+$1.5

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.54

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$0.17

Record

47%

1547-1731 (3278)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.