England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 67%
$2.3K
$10.72
55¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-16 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 55¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$10.33 | 51% 2468-2344 (4812) |
JO jole24CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $900 | $900 | -$0 | — 8-10 (18) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $58.3 | $58.3 | -$0 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $31.9 | $31.9 | +$0 | 52% 180-163 (343) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.4¢ | $31.37 | $31.78 | +$0.41 | 32% 524-1101 (1625) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 55.5¢ | $25.75 | $25.53 | -$0.21 | 41% 525-744 (1269) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $24.31 | $24.53 | +$0.22 | 50% 1181-1203 (2384) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 54.8¢ | $19.95 | $20 | +$0.06 | 53% 866-756 (1622) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $2.63 | $2.54 | -$0.09 | 47% 1458-1629 (3087) |
Invested
$1,158.84
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$10.33
Record
51%
2468-2344 (4812)
Invested
$900
Value
$900
PnL
-$0
Record
—
8-10 (18)
Invested
$58.3
Value
$58.3
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
Invested
$31.9
Value
$31.9
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
180-163 (343)
Invested
$31.37
Value
$31.78
PnL
+$0.41
Record
32%
524-1101 (1625)
Invested
$25.75
Value
$25.53
PnL
-$0.21
Record
41%
525-744 (1269)
Invested
$24.31
Value
$24.53
PnL
+$0.22
Record
50%
1181-1203 (2384)
Invested
$19.95
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
866-756 (1622)
Invested
$2.63
Value
$2.54
PnL
-$0.09
Record
47%
1458-1629 (3087)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.