England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 66¢ · $501 held · ends Nov 12

Over66¢Under34¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$500.57

Combined PnL

$0.37

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 65.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$312.08

Total Shares466

Combined PnL-$2.08

Under6 traders

Total Value$188.49

Total Shares557

Combined PnL+$2.45

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 66¢	$161.5	$162.73	+$1.22	61% 955-606 (1561)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 68¢	$128.78	$125.93	-$2.84	55% 1636-1337 (2973)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$83.2	$84.42	+$1.22	33% 544-1120 (1664)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$39.44	$40.03	+$0.6	32% 530-1111 (1641)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 33.3¢	$27.41	$27.16	-$0.25	52% 183-166 (349)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 32.5¢	$23.27	$24.01	+$0.73	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 67.7¢	$12.37	$12.42	+$0.05	47% 1521-1691 (3212)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 68¢	$44.51	$11	-$0.51	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 32.6¢	$7.83	$7.92	+$0.09	53% 920-807 (1727)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 32.7¢	$4.9	$4.95	+$0.05	41% 534-766 (1300)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$161.5

Value

$162.73

PnL

+$1.22

Record

61%

955-606 (1561)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$128.78

Value

$125.93

PnL

-$2.84

Record

55%

1636-1337 (2973)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.2

Value

$84.42

PnL

+$1.22

Record

33%

544-1120 (1664)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.44

Value

$40.03

PnL

+$0.6

Record

32%

530-1111 (1641)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.41

Value

$27.16

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

183-166 (349)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.27

Value

$24.01

PnL

+$0.73

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$12.37

Value

$12.42

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

1521-1691 (3212)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$44.51

Value

$11

PnL

-$0.51

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.83

Value

$7.92

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

920-807 (1727)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

41%

534-766 (1300)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.