Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (87%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 14¢ · $378 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$378.16
-$0.33
14¢ → 13.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 87%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 14¢ | $349.28 | $349.28 | -$0 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 14¢ | $11.65 | $11.65 | -$0 | 55% 641-522 (1163) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 14¢ | $9.35 | $9.02 | -$0.33 | 31% 393-875 (1268) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 14¢ | $6.24 | $6.24 | -$0 | 38% 355-588 (943) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 14¢ | $1.97 | $1.97 | -$0 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
Invested
$349.28
Value
$349.28
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$11.65
Value
$11.65
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
641-522 (1163)
Invested
$9.35
Value
$9.02
PnL
-$0.33
Record
31%
393-875 (1268)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$6.24
PnL
-$0
Record
38%
355-588 (943)
Invested
$1.97
Value
$1.97
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.