Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 50¢ · $596 held · ends Nov 12

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$596.17

Combined PnL

$0.45

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 50¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$338.84

Total Shares676

Combined PnL-$2.01

Over3 traders

Total Value$76.73

Total Shares153

Combined PnL+$2.47

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 50.2¢	$226.84	$225.93	-$0.91	52% 192-174 (366)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$176.99	$180.6	+$3.61	46% 443-515 (958)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$118.9	$121.33	+$2.43
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$58.08	$59.27	+$1.19
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22<$100	Overavg 48¢	$54.56	$56.83	+$2.27	— 5-3 (8)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 49¢	$49.59	$49.59	+$0	33% 539-1115 (1654)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 50¢	$28.06	$28.06	+$0	33% 556-1140 (1696)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 51.5¢	$20.71	$19.7	-$1.01	51% 2572-2488 (5060)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 49.4¢	$13.56	$10.67	+$0.16	54% 997-856 (1853)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 50¢	$10.3	$10.3	+$0	32% 542-1133 (1675)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 49¢	$9.41	$9.6	+$0.19	49% 19-20 (39)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 51.5¢	$5.15	$4.9	-$0.25	41% 562-806 (1368)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$226.84

Value

$225.93

PnL

-$0.91

Record

52%

192-174 (366)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$176.99

Value

$180.6

PnL

+$3.61

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

Both legs:

Under$118.949¢+$2.43

Over$58.0849¢+$1.19

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22<$100

Over

Invested

$54.56

Value

$56.83

PnL

+$2.27

Record

—

5-3 (8)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$49.59

Value

$49.59

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

539-1115 (1654)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$28.06

Value

$28.06

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

556-1140 (1696)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$20.71

Value

$19.7

PnL

-$1.01

Record

51%

2572-2488 (5060)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$13.56

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$10.3

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

542-1133 (1675)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$9.41

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.19

Record

49%

19-20 (39)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$5.15

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.25

Record

41%

562-806 (1368)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.