Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 27¢ · $383 held · ends Nov 12

Over74¢Under26¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 88%

Total Value

$382.74

Combined PnL

$78.47

Smart Money Entry

20.5¢ → 26.5¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$372.58

Total Shares1,431

Combined PnL+$78.73

Over1 trader

Total Value$10.16

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$0.26

Under — 88%Over — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotradecopyCTR	Underavg 19¢	$153.66	$210.28	+$56.61	10% 20-174 (194)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Underavg 20.3¢	$52.84	$67.6	+$14.76	58% 3336-2404 (5740)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$36	$39	+$3	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$27.2	$28.83	+$1.63	32% 530-1111 (1641)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$16.85	$19.04	+$2.2	46% 433-503 (936)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 75.4¢	$10.42	$10.16	-$0.26	53% 920-807 (1727)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$6	$6.5	+$0.5	50% 1216-1232 (2448)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.33	+$0.03	33% 546-1093 (1639)

NotradecopyCTR

Under

Invested

$153.66

Value

$210.28

PnL

+$56.61

Record

10%

20-174 (194)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.84

Value

$67.6

PnL

+$14.76

Record

58%

3336-2404 (5740)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36

Value

$39

PnL

+$3

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.2

Value

$28.83

PnL

+$1.63

Record

32%

530-1111 (1641)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.85

Value

$19.04

PnL

+$2.2

Record

46%

433-503 (936)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$10.42

Value

$10.16

PnL

-$0.26

Record

53%

920-807 (1727)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

1216-1232 (2448)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

33%

546-1093 (1639)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.