Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 45¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over55¢Under45¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$122.63

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 45¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,989

Combined PnL-$123.27

Over1 trader

Total Value$29.01

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$0.64

Under — 88%Over — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Underavg 43¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	59% 465-322 (787)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 45¢	$664.05	$634.54	-$29.51	46% 443-515 (958)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 45.8¢	$221.77	$213.22	-$8.55	33% 539-1116 (1655)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 44.4¢	$207.73	$201.96	-$5.77	52% 192-174 (366)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.4¢	$143.95	$139.32	-$4.63
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$63.78	$62.64	-$1.14
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 46¢	$240.07	$156.57	-$83.5	33% 556-1141 (1697)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$82.58	$82.58	+$0	44% 25-32 (57)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$40.27	$38.52	-$1.75	34% 564-1116 (1680)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 53.8¢	$30.68	$29.01	+$0.64	54% 997-856 (1853)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$4.45	$4.5	+$0.05	51% 2573-2489 (5062)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Under

Invested

$1,383.61

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

465-322 (787)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$664.05

Value

$634.54

PnL

-$29.51

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$221.77

Value

$213.22

PnL

-$8.55

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$207.73

Value

$201.96

PnL

-$5.77

Record

52%

192-174 (366)

Both legs:

Under$143.9544.4¢-$4.63

Over$63.7855¢-$1.14

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$240.07

Value

$156.57

PnL

-$83.5

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$82.58

Value

$82.58

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

25-32 (57)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.27

Value

$38.52

PnL

-$1.75

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$30.68

Value

$29.01

PnL

+$0.64

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.