Spread: England (-3.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Croatia (33%) · Croatia at 82¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

England18¢Croatia82¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Croatia

Consensus Traders

Croatia 33%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$51.66

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 82¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCroatia at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Croatia

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

England18%

Croatia82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Croatia3 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares5,328

Combined PnL-$52.31

England6 traders

Total Value$53.49

Total Shares259

Combined PnL+$0.65

Croatia — 33%England — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Croatia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEngland 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000England 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Croatiaavg 83¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$42.31	51% 2572-2488 (5060)
SE sentrio	Croatiaavg 83¢	$866.21	$856.25	-$9.96	41% 562-806 (1368)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Croatiaavg 82.1¢	$33.35	$33.32	-$0.04	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Englandavg 16.7¢	$34.77	$24.72	+$0.35	54% 997-856 (1853)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Englandavg 17¢	$160.41	$8.42	-$0.17	49% 1260-1292 (2552)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Englandavg 15¢	$6.61	$7.5	+$0.88	40% 68-100 (168)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Englandavg 18¢	$6.42	$6.06	-$0.36	32% 542-1133 (1675)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Englandavg 18¢	$5.25	$5.1	-$0.15	33% 539-1115 (1654)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Englandavg 16¢	$1.6	$1.7	+$0.1	33% 556-1140 (1696)

Flaznorp

Croatia

Invested

$3,916.65

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$42.31

Record

51%

2572-2488 (5060)

sentrio

Croatia

Invested

$866.21

Value

$856.25

PnL

-$9.96

Record

41%

562-806 (1368)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Croatia

Invested

$33.35

Value

$33.32

PnL

-$0.04

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

ghorrockCTR<$100

England

Invested

$34.77

Value

$24.72

PnL

+$0.35

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

ferdinand2CTR

England

Invested

$160.41

Value

$8.42

PnL

-$0.17

Record

49%

1260-1292 (2552)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

England

Invested

$6.61

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.88

Record

40%

68-100 (168)

VenusianCTR<$100

England

Invested

$6.42

Value

$6.06

PnL

-$0.36

Record

32%

542-1133 (1675)

LimousinCTR<$100

England

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.15

Record

33%

539-1115 (1654)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

England

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

33%

556-1140 (1696)

Research grade

NeutralCroatia at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Croatia

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Croatia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEngland 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000England 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Croatia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.