Spread: England (-2.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Croatia (71%) · Croatia at 65¢ · $203 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Croatia
7
Croatia 71%
$203.37
$1.18
64.2¢ → 64.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralCroatia at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+11 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Croatia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Croatiaavg 64.5¢ | $78.8 | $79.46 | +$0.66 | 53% 177-159 (336) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Croatiaavg 64¢ | $54.64 | $54.64 | +$0 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Croatiaavg 64.4¢ | $24.13 | $20.15 | +$0.01 | 53% 806-703 (1509) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Croatiaavg 64¢ | $16.54 | $16.67 | +$0.13 | 47% 1845-2082 (3927) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Englandavg 35¢ | $12.64 | $12.82 | +$0.18 | 32% 489-1029 (1518) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Croatiaavg 64¢ | $12.26 | $12.36 | +$0.1 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Englandavg 35¢ | $7.16 | $7.26 | +$0.1 | 33% 503-1013 (1516) |
Invested
$78.8
Value
$79.46
PnL
+$0.66
Record
53%
177-159 (336)
Invested
$54.64
Value
$54.64
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Invested
$24.13
Value
$20.15
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
806-703 (1509)
Invested
$16.54
Value
$16.67
PnL
+$0.13
Record
47%
1845-2082 (3927)
Invested
$12.64
Value
$12.82
PnL
+$0.18
Record
32%
489-1029 (1518)
Invested
$12.26
Value
$12.36
PnL
+$0.1
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
Invested
$7.16
Value
$7.26
PnL
+$0.1
Record
33%
503-1013 (1516)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.