Spread: Croatia (-1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold England (38%) · England at 98¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12

Croatia2¢England98¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

England

Consensus Traders

England 38%

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

$11.05

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 97.9¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralEngland at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

England

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Croatia2%

England98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

England3 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares12,294

Combined PnL+$3.66

Croatia5 traders

Total Value$263.42

Total Shares16,422

Combined PnL+$7.39

England — 38%Croatia — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on England. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpEngland 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCroatia 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000England 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	Englandavg 98.5¢	$12.1K	$12.1K	+$1.29	96% 22-1 (23)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Croatiaavg 1.6¢	$216	$220.8	+$4.8	38% 72-117 (189)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Croatiaavg 1.5¢	$35.6	$37.98	+$2.37	55% 1628-1331 (2959)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Englandavg 96¢	$31.68	$32.51	+$0.83	52% 180-163 (343)
38 38791873984189<$100	Englandavg 96¢	$18.87	$8.41	+$1.54	48% 1986-2186 (4172)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Croatiaavg 1.8¢	$3.95	$4.17	+$0.22	51% 2462-2334 (4796)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Croatiaavg 1.6¢	$0.45	$0.45	+$0	53% 852-745 (1597)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Croatiaavg 1.8¢	$0.03	$0.03	+$0	50% 1178-1197 (2375)

0F62

England

Invested

$12,071.16

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$1.29

Record

96%

22-1 (23)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Croatia

Invested

$216

Value

$220.8

PnL

+$4.8

Record

38%

72-117 (189)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Croatia

Invested

$35.6

Value

$37.98

PnL

+$2.37

Record

55%

1628-1331 (2959)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

England

Invested

$31.68

Value

$32.51

PnL

+$0.83

Record

52%

180-163 (343)

38791873984189<$100

England

Invested

$18.87

Value

$8.41

PnL

+$1.54

Record

48%

1986-2186 (4172)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Croatia

Invested

$3.95

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$0.22

Record

51%

2462-2334 (4796)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Croatia

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

852-745 (1597)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Croatia

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1178-1197 (2375)

Research grade

NeutralEngland at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

England

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on England. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpEngland 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCroatia 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000England 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that England wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.