Will Croatia win on 2026-11-12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 93¢ · $956 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$956.25
$31.04
93¢ → 92.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 93¢ | $366.75 | $364.78 | -$1.97 | 30% 383-882 (1265) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 93¢ | $329.21 | $327.44 | -$1.77 | 31% 393-875 (1268) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 93¢ | $132.03 | $131.32 | -$0.71 | 30% 384-878 (1262) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $61.47 | $96.05 | +$34.58 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $34.58 | $34.58 | +$0 | 42% 743-1014 (1757) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.17 | $2.08 | +$0.92 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
Invested
$366.75
Value
$364.78
PnL
-$1.97
Record
30%
383-882 (1265)
Invested
$329.21
Value
$327.44
PnL
-$1.77
Record
31%
393-875 (1268)
Invested
$132.03
Value
$131.32
PnL
-$0.71
Record
30%
384-878 (1262)
Invested
$61.47
Value
$96.05
PnL
+$34.58
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$34.58
Value
$34.58
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
743-1014 (1757)
Invested
$1.17
Value
$2.08
PnL
+$0.92
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.