Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
England leading at halftime?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 43¢ · $631 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
1 arb excluded
$631.29
$3.95
42.3¢ → 42.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 58¢ | $201 | $201 | +$0 | 61% 955-606 (1561) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $152.04 | $155.82 | +$3.78 | 55% 1636-1337 (2973) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 42.2¢ | $104.12 | $104.81 | +$0.69 | 51% 2511-2408 (4919) |
LI LightParadoxARB<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $81.72 | $80.01 | -$1.71 | 33% 544-1120 (1664) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 59¢ | $55.25 | $53.85 | -$1.4 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43¢ | $26.47 | $26.16 | -$0.31 | |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $40.96 | $40.48 | -$0.48 | 32% 530-1111 (1641) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $22.96 | $22.69 | -$0.27 | 33% 546-1093 (1639) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $11.42 | $11.29 | -$0.13 | 32% 524-1097 (1621) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $8.8 | $9.23 | +$0.43 | 41% 534-766 (1300) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $6.02 | $5.95 | -$0.07 | 50% 1216-1232 (2448) |
Invested
$201
Value
$201
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
955-606 (1561)
Invested
$152.04
Value
$155.82
PnL
+$3.78
Record
55%
1636-1337 (2973)
Invested
$104.12
Value
$104.81
PnL
+$0.69
Record
51%
2511-2408 (4919)
Invested
$81.72
Value
$80.01
PnL
-$1.71
Record
33%
544-1120 (1664)
Both legs:
Invested
$40.96
Value
$40.48
PnL
-$0.48
Record
32%
530-1111 (1641)
Invested
$22.96
Value
$22.69
PnL
-$0.27
Record
33%
546-1093 (1639)
Invested
$11.42
Value
$11.29
PnL
-$0.13
Record
32%
524-1097 (1621)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$9.23
PnL
+$0.43
Record
41%
534-766 (1300)
Invested
$6.02
Value
$5.95
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
1216-1232 (2448)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.