Croatia leading at halftime?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$168.57

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares1,977

Combined PnL+$199.05

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.97

Total Shares246

Combined PnL-$30.48

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 89¢	$667.61	$749.74	+$82.14	33% 563-1169 (1732)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 89¢	$637.19	$715.59	+$78.4	33% 585-1187 (1772)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 96.1¢	$206.61	$214.85	+$8.24	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
VE Venusian	Noavg 88.7¢	$135.98	$153.15	+$17.17	32% 565-1192 (1757)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 89¢	$66.15	$74.29	+$8.14	34% 592-1164 (1756)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 88¢	$63.46	$68.43	+$4.97	42% 97-133 (230)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$29.67	$0.89	-$28.78	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$1.55	$0.08	-$1.47	7% 8-99 (107)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.23	$0	-$0.23	49% 1307-1343 (2650)

Limousin

Invested

$667.61

Value

$749.74

PnL

+$82.14

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

LightParadox

Invested

$637.19

Value

$715.59

PnL

+$78.4

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

Flaznorp

Invested

$206.61

Value

$214.85

PnL

+$8.24

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

Venusian

Invested

$135.98

Value

$153.15

PnL

+$17.17

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$66.15

Value

$74.29

PnL

+$8.14

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$63.46

Value

$68.43

PnL

+$4.97

Record

42%

97-133 (230)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.67

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$28.78

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$1.47

Record

8-99 (107)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

PnL

-$0.23

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.