England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 64¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over37¢Under63¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$32.33

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 63.5¢

+17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over37%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares5,978

Combined PnL+$184.48

Over5 traders

Total Value$819.55

Total Shares2,121

Combined PnL-$216.81

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 58.8¢	$964.32	$992	+$27.68	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
RN1	Underavg 56.1¢	$699.57	$779.15	+$79.59	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 52.5¢	$645.55	$663.88	+$18.33	46% 443-515 (958)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51.7¢	$517.5	$540	+$22.5	52% 784-728 (1512)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$675.54	$534.77	-$140.77	52% 353-330 (683)
LO lonmi2511	Underavg 51¢	$322.11	$341.05	+$18.95	60% 675-453 (1128)
0X 0xc4fd4e711cb3b5bccc6b744f916fb6fae7a90677CTR	Overavg 49¢	$326.76	$250.07	-$76.69	— 2-5 (7)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 53.1¢	$429.68	$240.57	+$19.14	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 55.7¢	$42.98	$40.86	-$2.11	52% 192-174 (366)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 53.4¢	$34.25	$34.66	+$0.41	54% 997-856 (1853)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$19.88	$20.34	+$0.47	41% 562-807 (1369)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$11.18	$11.96	+$0.78	50% 13-13 (26)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$3	$2.41	-$0.59	17% 33-167 (200)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$964.32

Value

$992

PnL

+$27.68

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

RN1

Under

Invested

$699.57

Value

$779.15

PnL

+$79.59

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$645.55

Value

$663.88

PnL

+$18.33

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$517.5

Value

$540

PnL

+$22.5

Record

52%

784-728 (1512)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$675.54

Value

$534.77

PnL

-$140.77

Record

52%

353-330 (683)

lonmi2511

Under

Invested

$322.11

Value

$341.05

PnL

+$18.95

Record

60%

675-453 (1128)

0xc4fd4e711cb3b5bccc6b744f916fb6fae7a90677CTR

Over

Invested

$326.76

Value

$250.07

PnL

-$76.69

Record

—

2-5 (7)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$429.68

Value

$240.57

PnL

+$19.14

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$42.98

Value

$40.86

PnL

-$2.11

Record

52%

192-174 (366)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$34.25

Value

$34.66

PnL

+$0.41

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.88

Value

$20.34

PnL

+$0.47

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.18

Value

$11.96

PnL

+$0.78

Record

50%

13-13 (26)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.41

PnL

-$0.59

Record

17%

33-167 (200)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.