England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$551.16

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,639

Combined PnL+$14.86

Under6 traders

Total Value$134.64

Total Shares2,206

Combined PnL-$566.02

Over — 54%Under — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 98.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$7.04	71% 15-6 (21)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 99¢	$662.71	$662.71	+$0	86% 51-8 (59)
wesolyjasiu	Overavg 99.9¢	$489.97	$485.56	-$4.41	— 4-0 (4)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 26.9¢	$455.67	$133.55	-$322.12	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
RN1<$100	Overavg 77¢	$49.62	$46.77	-$2.85	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 69.3¢	$126.69	$37.05	+$12.07	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 79¢	$12.29	$14.16	+$1.87	54% 1032-892 (1924)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 77¢	$3.82	$4.95	+$1.14	41% 589-849 (1438)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 30.2¢	$202.83	$0.34	-$202.49	33% 563-1169 (1732)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$13.14	$0.33	-$12.81	33% 585-1187 (1772)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 26.7¢	$8	$0.3	-$7.7	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.1	$0.1	-$0	2% 5-204 (209)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$20.92	$0.03	-$20.89	34% 592-1164 (1756)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$1,355.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$7.04

Record

71%

15-6 (21)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$662.71

Value

$662.71

PnL

+$0

Record

86%

51-8 (59)

wesolyjasiu

Over

Invested

$489.97

Value

$485.56

PnL

-$4.41

Record

—

4-0 (4)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$455.67

Value

$133.55

PnL

-$322.12

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$49.62

Value

$46.77

PnL

-$2.85

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$126.69

Value

$37.05

PnL

+$12.07

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$12.29

Value

$14.16

PnL

+$1.87

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$3.82

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$1.14

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$202.83

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$202.49

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.14

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$12.81

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$7.7

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0

Record

5-204 (209)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.92

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$20.89

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.