Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia?
4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 97¢ · $362 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 40%
$361.7
$8.07
96.2¢ → 96.8¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 96.2¢ | $162.87 | $162.87 | +$0 | 26% 153-428 (581) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 96.2¢ | $127.25 | $127.25 | -$0 | 59% 3535-2417 (5952) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $35 | +$7.97 | — 2-10 (12) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $14.86 | $12.45 | -$2.41 | 34% 564-1116 (1680) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $184.68 | $7.81 | +$2.88 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $4.79 | $5.33 | +$0.54 | 51% 2573-2489 (5062) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $5.7 | $5.25 | -$0.45 | 52% 353-330 (683) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $4.76 | $4.38 | -$0.38 | 47% 1666-1892 (3558) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $1.08 | $0.98 | -$0.11 | 49% 1261-1293 (2554) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $0.36 | $0.38 | +$0.02 | 46% 443-515 (958) |
Invested
$162.87
Value
$162.87
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
153-428 (581)
Invested
$127.25
Value
$127.25
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
3535-2417 (5952)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$35
PnL
+$7.97
Record
—
2-10 (12)
Invested
$14.86
Value
$12.45
PnL
-$2.41
Record
34%
564-1116 (1680)
Invested
$184.68
Value
$7.81
PnL
+$2.88
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$5.33
PnL
+$0.54
Record
51%
2573-2489 (5062)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.25
PnL
-$0.45
Record
52%
353-330 (683)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.38
PnL
-$0.38
Record
47%
1666-1892 (3558)
Invested
$1.08
Value
$0.98
PnL
-$0.11
Record
49%
1261-1293 (2554)
Invested
$0.36
Value
$0.38
PnL
+$0.02
Record
46%
443-515 (958)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.